A few more thoughts about Syria

  • The criticism from Obama by some major foreign policy voices is either a sign that the administration has lost credibility with that establishment group or  part of some sort of meta-play by the Obama Admin.
    • It's important to remember that many of Obama's staffers have deep connections from the Clinton era as a part of "official Washington" - and that this process is being driven partly by those social connections as much as the facts on the ground.
  • The opposition from movement conservatives is predictable and knee-jerk. Nothing in their arguments convinces me that this is anything more than opportunism.
  • Likewise, Putin's motivations are to maintain a friendly regime and the access to the Mediterranean, full stop. His interest in civilians is politically beneficial; therefore its the position he takes.
  • Kerry is well connected globally thanks to his time in the senate foreign relations committee. His bellicose actions are deliberate, though the lack of coordination is genuine.
  • Obama's end game is continued American credibility and a continued taboo against chemical weapons. Putin's endgame is Russian power. Given the priorities, Russia may well come out visibly on top, looking good.
  • That's a worthwhile tradeoff.

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